Luciano Barra has examined the evidence and proclaimed it "elementare." Canada will finish first in the Vancouver 2010 medal count and also tied for fifth.

First and tied for fifth?

Depends on how you stack the numbers.

According to Barra, the renowned Olympic guru and former director general of the Italian Olympic Committee, Canada will win the most medals at the Winter Games, 29 in all, one more than the United States. However, Barra noted that the country with the most gold medals is traditionally crowned No..1. In which case, the United States with a projected 13 gold medals will stake that claim.

The numbers come courtesy of Barra, who has been cataloging statistics and Olympic trends for more than a decade. His widely-reported "medal projections" are based on how nations do at the most recent world championships. Using those results, and continually updating them, Barra has fashioned a preview of the 2010 Olympics.

"I don't use World Cups," said Barra, who explained that in sports such as alpine skiing there are too many competitions from week to week and therefore too many variables to get a clear read. "Some sports will have world championships before the [Vancouver] Olympics. I will update my projections then."

Based on its showings at the 2009 world championships, Canada is being pegged to win six Olympic gold medals - the same as China - along with 10 silver and 13 bronze medals. The bulk of those medals will come in long-track and short-track speed skating where Canadian athletes are projected earn 12 podium finishes. Six more are expected from freestyle skiing.
With 29 medals, Canada would eclipse the 24 it won at the 2006 Turin Olympics. But, as Barra pointed out, Canada won seven gold medals in Turin and is targeted to win one less in Vancouver.

"Canada will win more bronze medals this time," said Barra, who was quick to provide a cautionary note. "You have to remember that in snow sports - alpine, cross-country, biathlon, ski-jumping, Nordic - it very much depends on weather conditions and the condition of the snow. You know that European athletes don't like the humid [climate] and snow of Whistler. In Europe, the snow is very fresh and hard. It's a great advantage to get your athletes to train on those conditions.

"You have got to take advantage of that."

Over the past few months, Canadian sports officials have been criticized for going too far and taking too much of an advantage. Rival athletes, coaches and administrators have said Canada is not allowing foreign athletes enough time to train at the Olympic facilities. Speed skaters have grumbled, alpine skiers have griped and, last week, American skeleton racer Katie Uhlaender claimed "the world is pretty disappointed" with its limited access in Vancouver and Whistler, adding Canada's behaviour is "not consistent with Olympic ideals."

Barra, who has attended and worked 16 Olympic Games, scoffed at the complaints.

"Normally, if people want to cry they should know it's the same for all home athletes. This is the home advantage. I haven't heard any Europeans complaining."

The other storyline heading into the 100-day countdown to Vancouver is which athlete, if any, will leave their signature on the 2010 Games. Will the world bear witness to a multiple medal-winner extraordinaire, a Michael Phelps of the snow and ice set?

The possibilities exist - American alpine skier Lindsey Vonn, Finnish cross-country skiers Virpi Kuitunen and Aino-Kaisa Saarinen, Canada's long-track and short-track speed skaters - but Barra doesn't believe one athlete will hog all the attention.

"It's not any more that case. It's been ridiculous in some sports, especially in speed skating where somebody wins three, four medals [or five, as Cindy Klassen did in 2006]," Barra said. "In cross-country skiing, there is not a dominating athlete like a Bjorn Daehlie of Norway [who won 12 Olympics medals in his career]. There is such a specialization. I don't see it happening [in Vancouver]."

What he does see, no matter how the numbers are aligned, is a most successful Olympics for Canada, not to mention the first gold medal won by a Canadian athlete at home. Consider it a highlight to the country's first/tied-for-fifth finish.

Luciano Barra's projections